As per the nationwide survey by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), over six crore people in India may have contracted Coronavirus- which is ten times the country’s official figures, presently at 6,312,584.
The national serological survey was conducted between mid-August to mid-September, and tested more than 29,000 people, across 700 villages and wards, for antibodies against Covid19. “The main conclusions from this sero-survey are that one in 15 individuals aged more than ten have been exposed to [Covid19] by August,” Dr. Balram Bhargava, Director General of the ICMR.
The objective of the survey, according to ICMR, was to estimate the national prevalence and spread in hotspots.
Sero-surveys are conducted by taking blood samples and checking for a specific class of antibodies called IgG that appear within two weeks of infection. As it is unclear for now that how long antibodies to the Coronavirus detectably persist in the body, their presence only directs past exposure to and not the presence of – the virus.
No figures were shared on the estimated number of infections by ICMR Director-General, Dr Balram Bhargava, in his presentation on the sero-survey on Tuesday. But 7 % of the population works out to about 62 million people.
During the first survey, it showed that there were 82-130 infections for every confirmed COVID-19 positive case. That number has now declined to 26-32 infections, which, according to Dr Bhargava, was the result of ramped-up testing and early case detection.
In September there were 29 million tests, in comparison to 23 million in August, 10.5 million in July and 30,000 in March according to Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan.
However, the numbers also indicate that the country still has a considerable majority of its population yet to be exposed to the Coronavirus and therefore, is far from its “peak” or “herd immunity” levels. “Since a large proportion of the population is still susceptible, prevention fatigue has to be avoided… In light of the upcoming festivities, in light of the winter season and mass gathering, containment strategies must be implemented by the states, and the use of masks cannot be underlined more than after this seroprevalence survey. That is very, very essential,” Dr. Bhargava warned, concerned about adequate precautions and social distancing, during the annual festivals of Dussehra, Diwali, and Christmas.